“The future of war is highly uncertain. Even with the ever-larger availability of data and increased maturity of forecasting techniques, predicting when and where conflicts will emerge, who will be waging them, and with what means they will be fought remains a daunting task. As a US major once admitted: “We have a perfect record in predicting future wars … And that record is 0 percent.” That being said, anticipation is extremely important for policymakers, as it allows for prioritisation, enhances military planning and, ideally, contributes to conflict prevention.”

Lotje Boswinkel is a strategic analyst at HCSS working on European security and defence issues. Prior to joining, she worked as a trainee at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) and as an intern in Amman and Beirut. She holds a Master’s degree in International Security from Sciences Po in Paris, while her studies at Amsterdam University College and the University of Melbourne earned her a Bachelor’s degree in Liberal Arts and Sciences.